Bernie is winning the nomination race and here's whyFollow

No spoilers!

Also, I'm guessing the Republican one ends in Thunderdome this year.


Edited, Mar 29th 2016 8:19am by Poldaran

With cake?

Realizing the cold reality of running Clinton against Republican nominees, voters get cold feet and decide to take a chance on the candidate with far fewer negatives since his pledged delegate count puts him within striking distance of her this late in the game? That people with liberal values realize they don't have to accept a regime change-aholic neocon as their candidate because her coronation ceremony isn't completely a forgone conclusion just yet?

Does it even surprise anyone that her name has a big red arrow pointing to the right on all of her campaign memorabilia?

Edited, Mar 29th 2016 12:48pm by Lefein

The problem is you think the people who are voting for Clinton are liberals.

They are not.

To be fair you probably don't want someone too liberal winning the nomination. You'll end up with the same problem the right has, trying to make someone like Trump look appealing to independent voters.

"More abundant."

Approx. Clinton total votes so far: 8,945,000
Approx. Sanders votes so far: 6,386,600

I don't see the remaining northern states (plus California) changing the ratio much. The issue is that, where Sanders won his blow outs, the voter count is literally an order of magnitude or more smaller than Clinton's primary victories. Sanders wins some caucus by a total of 6,050 to 1,140 and then Clinton wins a primary 770,000 to 540,000.

The best states for Sanders moving forward are still the low population ones. A sweeping victory in Connecticut won't matter as much as a solid Clinton win in New York. What northern states do you think are going to make up a 2.55 million deficit in voters?

I'm counting on the party leadership and super delegates to understand the difference between an early voter engorged entrenched candidate with high negatives and a late-coming insurgent candidate who is able to shift the base to their cause.

Even if Bernie winds this down to less than 100 pledged delegates at the end of the primaries, the choice the super delegates will have to make is not an easy one. Siding with Clinton will not keep the party contiguous in the long-term and also put the GE in jeopardy. What would be the argument against Bernie in that scenario? That Clintonian Democrats will sit by and let Trump win? Any takers on that happening!?

Clinton not only has more voters, they are more enthusiastic about their candidate by a 10pt margin.

Sanders supporters likely won't sit by either if history is any indicator (2008 elections and the disaffected PUMA contingent).

You do know that if Hillary got indicted or, worse, lost to Trump in the GE that the progressives will not sit happily by for the next for years while another hawk goes on the ballot (or, Clinton, thinking she has infinite lives hacks). It's a mighty big risk for the party.

Unless he breaks left/centric after winning the primaries and playing the missing chromosonians like simpletons and then banking on independants because the swing voter is the only bigger moron in this story than Republicans.

He won't lose his base. He can change his mind on a whim and has the best words, after all.

Edited, Mar 29th 2016 3:11pm by Lefein